美国12月非农点评：美国就业连续超预期，降息预期再压缩

Employment Data - In December, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 256,000, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 165,000[1] - The unemployment rate stood at 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.2%[1] - The labor force participation rate remained stable at 62.5%[1] Employment Sector Performance - Service sector jobs accounted for the majority of new employment, with 231,000 jobs added in December, up from 178,000 in November[2] - Goods-producing employment saw a decline of 8,000 jobs, primarily due to a drop in manufacturing jobs, which fell by 13,000[2] - Government employment increased by 33,000, remaining relatively stable compared to previous months[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market showed resilience, with an average monthly increase of 197,000 jobs in 2024, despite signs of weakening[1] - The labor supply gap widened to 977,000 in November, attributed to a potential outflow of foreign labor[2] - The tightening of immigration policies under the Trump administration is expected to further strain the labor supply, particularly in low-end service jobs[2] Monetary Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, market expectations indicate a low probability of interest rate cuts in January, with only one anticipated cut of 25 basis points for the entire year of 2025[3] - Concerns persist regarding the adequacy of the Fed's rate-cutting path and the potential for increased inflation due to policy changes[3] - The overall stability of the employment market is expected, but risks of structural volatility remain elevated[3]