12月外贸数据点评：“抢出口”迹象显著

Export Performance - December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year in USD terms, exceeding market expectations of 7.1% and reaching a five-year high in month-on-month growth at 7.6%[10] - The trade surplus for December was approximately $104.84 billion, marking the first time in five years that it surpassed$100 billion, while the annual trade surplus reached $992.2 billion, the highest in nearly a decade[10] - Structural factors, particularly "export grabbing," significantly contributed to the robust export growth despite a global manufacturing downturn[10] Regional Contributions - Exports to the United States saw a substantial increase, with growth rising from 8.0% to 15.6% month-on-month, driven by "export grabbing" strategies[14] - The ASEAN region was the largest contributor to export growth, adding 3.1 percentage points, with Vietnam contributing 0.7 percentage points, equivalent to the contribution from the U.S.[15] Product Categories - Agricultural exports grew by 12.1%, up 4.7 percentage points from the previous month, contributing 0.4 percentage points to overall export growth, with seafood exports surging to 17.6%[18] - Mechanical and electrical products also rebounded, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1%, contributing 7.1 percentage points to export growth[18] - High-tech product exports slowed, with a growth rate of 4.3%, contributing 1.1 percentage points to overall exports[18] Import Trends - December imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of a decline, and saw a month-on-month growth of 7.5%, the highest in five years[23] - The recovery in import growth was supported by a rebound in mechanical and high-tech product imports, which grew by 6.7% and 12.8%, respectively, offsetting declines in agricultural and crude oil imports[23] Future Outlook - Short-term export resilience is expected to continue due to the "export grabbing" window before tariff policies are implemented, particularly in the first quarter of 2025[30] - Long-term export pressures may arise from slow global manufacturing recovery, diminishing marginal effects of "export grabbing," increased trade barriers from U.S. tariff policies, and higher base effects impacting growth rates[30]