金融数据速评（2024.12）：置换坚决压制长贷，利率走低短融提前

Group 1: Credit and Financing Trends - In December, new credit increased by 990 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion RMB, but the decline was less than in November[1] - Corporate loans in December amounted to 490 billion RMB, marking the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year decline, with short-term loans and bill financing showing a significant increase of 343.8 billion RMB[1] - Residential loans reached 350 billion RMB in December, a year-on-year increase of 127.9 billion RMB, with medium to long-term loans contributing 300 billion RMB, the highest increase in nearly 11 months[1] Group 2: Social Financing and Monetary Policy - New social financing in December was 2.9 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 924.9 billion RMB, driven by a surge in government bonds totaling 1.8 trillion RMB[1] - The total amount of corporate bonds increased by 258.8 billion RMB, indicating strong demand for corporate debt financing in a low-interest-rate environment[1] - M2 growth rebounded slightly to 7.3% year-on-year, while fiscal deposits decreased significantly by 1.67 trillion RMB, reflecting rapid debt replacement execution[1] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report suggests that credit growth may likely decline in 2025 due to rapid debt replacement affecting medium to long-term corporate loans and a potential cooling of residential demand[1] - The uncertainty in economic growth for 2025 will be influenced by U.S. tariff policies and the effectiveness of fiscal measures to stimulate consumption[1] - The central bank is expected to implement a reserve requirement ratio cut of 50-100 basis points and a potential interest rate cut of 40 basis points in the first half of 2025[1]