中原证券：晨会聚焦-20250115

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decline in the overall social financing scale in 2024, with a total increase of 32.26 trillion yuan, which is 3.32 trillion yuan less than the previous year [5][9] - The M2 balance at the end of December 2024 was 313.53 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, while M1 decreased by 1.4% [5][9] - The report highlights a steady decline in loan interest rates, with new corporate loans at approximately 3.43% and personal housing loans at about 3.11% by December 2024 [5][9] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,240.94, with a daily increase of 2.54%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 3.77% to 10,165.17 [3] - The report notes that the average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are at 13.44 and 33.61, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [10][14] International Market Performance - The Dow Jones index closed at 30,772.79, down by 0.67%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.45% and 0.15%, respectively [4] Industry Analysis - The lithium battery sector saw a 12.78% decline in its index, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, despite a 34.01% year-on-year increase in new energy vehicle sales [16][17] - The chemical industry index fell by 5.89% in December 2024, with the acrylic acid industry chain performing well amidst rising oil prices [18][19] - The AI sector is experiencing rapid growth, with significant advancements in domestic AI models and a focus on the AI computing power industry chain [20][21][24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as software development, internet services, semiconductors, and consumer electronics for short-term investment opportunities [10][14] - In the chemical industry, it is recommended to pay attention to resource products, polyester filament, and new chemical materials as key investment themes [19] - The communication sector is expected to benefit from new subsidy policies for digital products, with an upgrade in the smartphone market anticipated [28][30][33]