东吴证券：晨会纪要-20250115

Macro Strategy - The A-share market experienced a decrease in trading volume, with small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25% to 3160.76 points, down 5.70% from the end of 2024. The ChiNext Index rose by 0.36% to 1982.46 points, down 7.43% from the end of 2024. The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.27% to 3722.51 points, down 5.40% from the end of 2024, while the CSI 500 Index rose by 0.23% to 5381.70 points, down 6.01% from the end of 2024 [1][8] - The market turnover was 976.208 billion yuan, a decrease of 186.749 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Northbound capital totaled 156.733 billion yuan, while southbound capital had a net inflow of 6.572 billion yuan [1][8] - The real estate sector saw a rise of 1.12% due to adjustments in tax policies related to real estate, while the oil and gas sector also increased as oil prices continued to rise [1][8] Fixed Income - The issuance of the Yushui Convertible Bond (113070.SH) began on January 9, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 1.9 billion yuan. The net proceeds will be used for acquiring wastewater treatment assets and expanding a water plant [9][10] - The bond has a credit rating of AAA and a yield to maturity (YTM) of 1.85%. The bond's face value is 100 yuan, with a coupon rate that increases over six years [9][10] Company-Specific Insights 361 Degrees (01361.HK) - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with online sales growing by 30-35% and offline sales by approximately 10%. The inventory turnover ratio remained healthy at 4.5-5 times [11][12] - The company maintains a "buy" rating with projected net profits of 1.131 billion yuan, 1.329 billion yuan, and 1.548 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to P/E ratios of 7, 6, and 5 [11][12] Chongqing Department Store (600729) - The company achieved a net profit of 1.315 billion yuan in 2024, a 0.5% increase year-on-year. The revenue for 2024 was 17.12 billion yuan, with a 9.9% adjustment [13][14] - The company is expected to benefit from government subsidies and plans to renovate at least 38 stores in 2025, enhancing its operational efficiency [13][14] Northern Huachuang (002371) - The company anticipates a revenue of 27.6-31.78 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 25.0-43.9%. The net profit is expected to be between 5.17-5.95 billion yuan, a growth of 32.6%-52.6% [14][15] - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor equipment market, with a focus on various advanced manufacturing processes [14][15] SF Express (09699.HK) - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of 15.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 25%. The net profit forecast for 2024 is adjusted to 135 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase [16][17] - The company is expanding its market presence, particularly in lower-tier cities, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth [16][17]