东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250115

Key Points - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 256,000 in December, exceeding expectations of 160,000, while the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% [2][3] - The labor market shows signs of tightness with a demand-to-supply ratio of 100.58% in November, indicating a rebound similar to pre-pandemic levels [3][4] - The manufacturing sector continues to decline, with a loss of 13,000 jobs in December, while non-durable goods saw a slight increase of 3,000 jobs [4][8] - The healthcare and government sectors are supporting non-farm employment, with these sectors accounting for 26% of total non-farm jobs [4][8] - The average weekly earnings growth is declining, with a year-on-year increase of 3.5% for weekly wages and 3.8% for hourly wages, still above inflation [7][8] - The Federal Reserve's policy path is expected to be more hawkish than indicated in the dot plot, with a projected upper limit for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.75% to 5% [3][8] - The A-share and Hong Kong markets showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.54% and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 3.77% [5] - The real estate sector is showing signs of stabilization, with the top 100 real estate companies' sales decline narrowing to -30.3% year-on-year in December [17][18] - The coal industry is experiencing a decline in coking coal prices, with a decrease of 6.14% in the China coking coal price index [23][24] - The communication industry is expanding, with significant progress in high-speed optical module production and overseas capacity development [26][27]