东海证券：晨会纪要-20250115

Key Points on Export and Import Data - In December 2024, China's export scale reached a historical second-highest level at $335.6 billion, driven by the "rush to export" effect ahead of potential Trump tariff policies [8][9] - The export growth rate in December increased by 4 percentage points compared to November, reaching a year-high of 7.6% month-on-month, significantly exceeding the 5-year average of 4.77% [9] - Exports to the US, ASEAN, and the EU showed notable growth, with year-on-year increases of 15.59%, 18.94%, and 8.76% respectively, while exports to Japan declined by 10.58 percentage points [10] - Imports in December 2024 reached $230.79 billion, the highest since October 2022, but the annual import growth rate remained low at 1.1%, indicating weak domestic demand [11] Key Points on Food and Beverage Industry - The food and beverage sector underperformed last week, with a decline of 3.46%, ranking 29th among 31 Shenwan primary sectors [14] - Leading liquor companies are focusing on stabilizing prices and balancing supply and demand, with Wuliangye suspending supply of its 8th generation product to stabilize prices [15] - The beer industry is expected to see marginal demand improvement in 2025, with Qingdao Beer highlighted as a key player in the high-end market [16] - The snack industry is benefiting from diversified channels, with strong growth expected during the Spring Festival season [17] Key Points on A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.24% to 3160 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index showed slight gains [30] - The oil and gas extraction sector led gains, rising by 3.41%, with significant capital inflows of over 212 million yuan [32] - Energy metals, precious metals, and industrial metals were among the top-performing sectors, while internet e-commerce and small home appliances underperformed [31][33] Key Points on Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3160.76 points, down 0.25%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 0.36% to 1982.46 points [36] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1% to 18874.14 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.86% to 42297.12 points [36] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil rose by 0.95% to $77.30 per barrel, while LME copper increased by 0.23% to $9094 per ton [36]