银行：12月金融数据点评：财政大幅发力，社融见底回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [7]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that social financing (社融) has bottomed out and is showing signs of recovery, with growth rates exceeding expectations, primarily driven by government bonds and bill discounts. As of December 2024, M1, M2, and social financing growth rates have all rebounded, with M1 increasing by 2.3 percentage points to -1.4%, M2 rising by 0.2 percentage points to 7.3%, and social financing growth up by 0.2 percentage points to 8%, surpassing the expected 7.9% [7][19]. - The report highlights significant fiscal support, with government bond issuance and fiscal spending accelerating. In December, the net financing from government bonds reached 1.76 trillion yuan, an increase of 830 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a substantial boost to support the real economy [7][19]. - The demand for medium- and long-term loans from households continues to improve, likely due to the ongoing recovery in the real estate market. It is expected that fiscal policies will expand support for demand, further enhancing household credit demand [7][19]. - Corporate cash flow is improving due to fiscal spending, which is also replacing some corporate financing needs. The report notes that the increase in corporate deposits is mainly driven by fiscal expenditure, while short-term corporate credit demand is being substituted [7][19]. Summary by Sections Overall Situation - Social financing growth has seen a bottoming out and recovery, with December 2024 showing an 8.0% growth rate, up from 7.8% in November [19]. Government Sector - The government has significantly increased fiscal efforts, with December's net financing from government bonds at 1.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 830 billion yuan. This indicates a strong fiscal push to support the economy [7][19]. Household Sector - There is a continued improvement in medium- and long-term loan demand from households, with December showing an increase of 150 billion yuan year-on-year, attributed to the recovery in the real estate market [7][19]. Corporate Sector - Corporate cash flow is improving due to fiscal spending, which is replacing some financing needs. The report notes that corporate deposits have increased significantly, primarily due to fiscal expenditure [7][19]. Non-Banking Sector - There has been a significant reduction in deposits, as the arbitrage space between interbank deposits and general deposits has been compressed, leading to a further decline in non-bank deposits [7][19].