银行业12月金融数据点评：政府债支撑社融增速回升，居民中长贷延续改善

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the banking industry [6] Core Views - Government bonds and corporate bond financing significantly supported the year-on-year increase in social financing (社融) in December 2024, with a growth rate of 8.0% YoY and a month-on-month increase of 0.2 percentage points [8][9] - Loan growth slightly declined, with a 7.6% YoY increase in December 2024, but residential medium and long-term loans continued to improve, showing a YoY increase of 1,538 billion yuan [13] - M1 growth continued to rebound, with a YoY increase of -1.4% in December 2024, while M2 grew by 7.3% YoY, narrowing the M2-M1 growth gap by 2.1 percentage points to 8.7% [17] Investment Recommendations and Targets - High-dividend stocks are recommended, including Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) [23] - Cyclical stocks and high-quality city commercial banks are suggested, such as China Merchants Bank (600036), Bank of Ningbo (002142), Bank of Nanjing (601009), Bank of Hangzhou (600926), and Bank of Chengdu (601838) [23] - Stocks with improving risk expectations are highlighted, including Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank (601077) and Ping An Bank (000001) [25] Key Data and Trends - Social financing in December 2024 increased by 28,575 billion yuan, a YoY increase of 9,249 billion yuan, driven by government bonds and corporate bond financing [9] - Residential medium and long-term loans improved for three consecutive months, with a YoY increase of 1,538 billion yuan in December 2024 [13] - Corporate deposits increased significantly by 14,892 billion yuan YoY in December 2024, mainly due to accelerated fiscal spending [17]