Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China General Nuclear Power New Energy (1811.HK) with a target price of HKD 2.72, indicating a potential upside of 25% from the current price of HKD 2.18 [5][11]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a slight increase in total power generation in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%. However, wind power generation is projected to decline by 2.6% due to adverse wind resource conditions [2][8]. - In 2024, the company added 11.53 million kilowatts of new installed capacity, exceeding its planned guidance. The total operational capacity is expected to reach 56.83 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, approaching the strategic target of 70 million kilowatts by 2025 [3][9]. - The company is currently undervalued, with a dynamic PE of 4.8 and 4.0 for 2024 and 2025, respectively. The report anticipates a valuation recovery in 2025 as risks related to electricity price declines and subsidy arrears gradually ease [4][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be USD 2.182 billion, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.5% compared to 2023. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be USD 234 million, a decrease of 12.6% year-on-year [6][15]. - The report outlines a consistent operating profit margin of around 24% to 25% over the next few years, with an EBITDA margin expected to improve from 9% in 2024 to 12% by 2026 [15][17]. Installed Capacity and Generation - The company is focusing on increasing the proportion of onshore wind power projects while continuing to develop solar energy projects. The total installed capacity is expected to grow steadily, with a significant emphasis on wind and solar energy in the future [3][9]. Valuation Metrics - The report highlights that the company is trading at a price-to-book (PB) ratio of approximately 0.74 for 2024, indicating a potential for valuation recovery as market conditions improve [4][10].
中广核新能源：24年发电量微增长，期待25年估值修复