计算机行业2025年度策略报告：科技自强，拥抱主线

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry for the next twelve months [1][63]. Core Viewpoints - The computer sector's performance in 2024 is expected to be in the middle of the industry, with room for upward adjustment in allocation ratios [4]. - The A-share Shenwan Computer Index increased by 4.42% in 2024, ranking 15th among 31 first-level sub-industries [12]. - AI, domestic innovation (信创), and intelligent driving are identified as key investment themes [5][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Computer Sector Market Review - The computer sector's overall performance lagged behind the CSI 300 Index by 10.26 percentage points in 2024 [12]. - The sector's valuation has been rapidly recovering, with a PE-TTM of 70.27 as of December 31, 2024 [12]. 2. Computer Sector Financial Performance - The total revenue for the computer sector in the first three quarters of 2024 was 858.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.18%, while net profit decreased by 29.86% [21]. - The sector's operating cash flow was -42.21 billion yuan, indicating pressure on cash flow due to a slowdown in information technology spending [26]. 3. AI Investment Opportunities - The AI sector is expected to benefit from increased demand for inference computing power and the need for self-control, with AI chips seen as a critical investment opportunity [5]. - The acceptance of AI applications is growing, with significant user engagement in AI products like ChatGPT and Doubao [31][35]. 4. Domestic Innovation (信创) Policy Acceleration - The report highlights the acceleration of domestic innovation policies, particularly in operating systems and databases, driven by increased funding and demand from vertical industries [6][49]. - The market for domestic operating systems is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on enhancing core industry competitiveness [52]. 5. Intelligent Driving Sector - The report notes a decline in costs associated with intelligent driving technologies, which is expected to enhance the penetration rate of intelligent driving software [7][59]. - The global market for automotive software is projected to reach 84 billion USD by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.26% from 2025 to 2030 [61]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI chips, domestic operating systems, and intelligent driving software as key investment areas, recommending specific companies such as Haiguang Information and Desay SV [64].