政策态度鲜明但基本面偏弱，债市当周既有停顿亦有波动——当前债市做多赔率不足，强美元环境下曲线结构或继续走平

Group 1: Market Overview - The current bond market shows insufficient long positions, with a strong dollar environment likely leading to a flattening of the yield curve[7] - In the second week of January, macroeconomic data from overseas indicates a soft landing for economic growth, with ISM manufacturing and services PMIs exceeding market expectations[7] - The US economy demonstrates resilience against high-interest financial conditions, primarily due to its consumption-driven nature[7] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Funding - The central bank's open market operations (OMO) have been low, resulting in a tight funding environment despite seasonal declines in liquidity[7] - Concerns about the central bank's potential actions on the RMB exchange rate may lead to a temporary tightening of the funding environment[7] - The central bank announced a pause in government bond purchases starting January 2025, which will be reviewed based on market supply and demand[7] Group 3: Asset Performance - Domestic bond markets are experiencing volatility, while US Treasury bonds continue to strengthen, with the RMB exchange rate showing increased fluctuations[9] - The A-share market has weakened significantly, influenced by the strong dollar's pressure on domestic equity markets[9] - The 10-year government bond yield is fluctuating around 1.6%, reflecting market expectations of a 40 basis point rate cut[7]