银行行业12月社融金融数据点评：政府债支撑社融增速回升，居民部门延续改善趋势

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for 2025, indicating an expectation of better performance compared to the market benchmark [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that government bonds are the main support for the increase in social financing (社融) in December, with a year-on-year increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, leading to a total of 2.86 trillion yuan in new social financing [2][3]. - The report notes a continued improvement in the residential sector, driven by reduced early repayment pressure and a recovery in real estate sales, while corporate financing demand remains weak [2][3]. - The outlook for 2025 suggests that with more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, government bonds are expected to maintain high growth, supporting social financing growth [2][3]. Summary by Sections Social Financing - In December, new social financing reached 2.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.92 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing grew by 8% year-on-year, showing a slight improvement of 0.2 percentage points month-on-month [3][20]. - Government bonds accounted for 62% of the new social financing, with 1.76 trillion yuan issued in December, primarily for replacing hidden debts [3][10]. - The total social financing for the year was 32.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. Credit - New RMB loans in December amounted to 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.6%, showing a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month [4][10]. - The residential sector saw a recovery in medium to long-term loans, with new household loans of 350 billion yuan, an increase of 127.9 billion yuan year-on-year, supported by a decrease in early repayments and improved real estate sales [4][10]. - Corporate loans decreased significantly, with new corporate loans of 490 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.016 trillion yuan, indicating weak demand for corporate leverage [4][10]. Deposits - M1 growth continued to recover, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% in December, but improved by 2.3 percentage points month-on-month [11][22]. - M2 growth was 7.3% year-on-year, reflecting an increase in government spending and a shift of government deposits towards residents and enterprises [11][22]. - The report anticipates that the new M1 statistical criteria will result in higher growth rates under the new methodology starting January 2025 [11][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the main logic for bank investments in 2025 will come from long-term and passive funds enhancing the value of bank allocations, particularly in high-dividend stocks [11]. - It also indicates that improvements in the fundamental outlook will drive valuation recovery, recommending a focus on cyclical stocks with performance release potential, especially strong regional banks [11].