ANTA SPORTS(02020) 第一上海证券·2025-01-15 06:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 106.4, representing a potential upside of 35.6% from the current price of HKD 78.5 [2][4]. Core Insights - The company's fourth-quarter performance in 2024 exceeded expectations, with significant growth in retail sales across its main brand and FILA, driven by various store formats and targeted products [4]. - The company is optimistic about 2025, projecting low double-digit growth for both the ANTA and FILA brands, with a long-term revenue target for FILA set at RMB 40-50 billion [4]. - The overall retail performance for 2024 showed high single-digit growth for the ANTA brand and mid-single-digit growth for FILA, with other brands experiencing a remarkable 50-55% increase [4]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62,356 million in 2023 to RMB 69,600 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [3]. - The net profit is expected to rise from RMB 10,236 million in 2023 to RMB 13,050 million in 2024, marking a growth of 27.5% [3]. - The basic earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from RMB 3.69 in 2023 to RMB 4.70 in 2024, representing a growth of 27.5% [3]. Operational Performance - In Q4 2024, the ANTA brand's retail sales recorded high single-digit growth, with e-commerce sales increasing nearly 20% [4]. - The inventory turnover ratio is maintained at around 5, indicating efficient inventory management [4]. - The discount rate for online sales improved by 1 percentage point compared to the previous year, while offline discounts remained stable [4]. Market Outlook - The company plans to expand its presence in Southeast Asia and aims to open its first direct store in Los Angeles by 2025, along with plans for cross-border e-commerce [4]. - Despite fluctuations in the domestic consumption sector, the company continues to demonstrate high-quality growth, showcasing the advantages of its "single focus, multi-brand, and all-channel" development strategy [4].