Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group with a target price of RMB 93.00, corresponding to a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5][28]. Core Insights - Midea Group's management has guided a revenue growth of 5%-10% for 2025, with profit growth expected to be faster. The core home appliance business is anticipated to grow within this range, while overseas business is expected to grow faster due to OBM drivers. The 2B business is projected to grow at a double-digit rate [1][2]. - The company emphasizes continuous product structure upgrades as a key strategy for improving profitability, with high-end brands COLMO and Toshiba achieving RMB 15 billion in sales in 2024, a 30% year-on-year increase [2]. - Midea is focusing on its core business and plans to exit or stop operations in less profitable areas, reiterating its "focus on core" strategy initiated in 2022 [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for Midea Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 373.71 billion - 2024E: RMB 415.40 billion - 2025E: RMB 458.94 billion - 2026E: RMB 494.01 billion [7]. - The estimated CAGR for earnings from 2024E to 2026E is 12% [4]. Competitive Landscape - Midea acknowledges the competitive threat posed by Xiaomi, particularly in channel efficiency and "explosive product strategy." In response, Midea plans to enhance its channel capabilities and introduce more entry-level SKUs under the Hualing brand, which offer better technology and quality at lower prices [3]. Valuation Metrics - The report estimates a target price of RMB 93.00 based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting a 16x P/E ratio for 2025 [4][5]. - The stock is currently trading at RMB 74.30, indicating a potential upside of 25.2% [9]. Market Data - Midea Group's market capitalization is approximately RMB 511 billion (USD 69.7 billion) with a circulating share ratio of 97% [5]. - The average daily trading volume is 34,443 thousand shares, with an average daily turnover of RMB 2,532.9 million [5]. Dividend and Earnings - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for Midea Group are as follows: - 2024E: RMB 5.02 - 2025E: RMB 5.67 - 2026E: RMB 6.26 [7]. - The expected dividend per share for 2025 is RMB 3.74, yielding a net dividend yield of 5.0% [7]. Conclusion - Midea Group is positioned for steady growth driven by product upgrades and a focus on core business areas, with a favorable outlook for profitability and market performance in the coming years [1][2][4].
美的集团-2025瑞银大中华研讨会：产品结构升级仍为关键战略