YTCO(600066)2025-01-15 07:03Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yutong Bus is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 32.00, indicating an expected return exceeding market expectations by more than 6% over the next 12 months [5][24]. Core Insights - Yutong Bus anticipates a nearly 10% increase in export sales for 2025, with slight growth in the domestic market, supported by the vehicle replacement policy [1][2]. - The company expects favorable profit margins for Q4 2024 and the entirety of 2025 due to scale effects and improved product structure [1]. - Yutong Bus maintains its dividend strategy due to strong cash flow performance, with no changes to its dividend payout ratio and capital expenditure guidance [1][2]. Summary by Sections Export Market Outlook - Yutong Bus projects to export over 15,000 units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of approximately 10% from 14,000 units in 2024, with faster growth expected in the new energy bus segment [2]. - The company estimates its reachable overseas market capacity at 80,000 to 100,000 units, primarily in the mid-to-high-end market where competition is relatively mild [2]. Domestic Market Outlook - The domestic bus market is expected to grow due to the enhancement of the vehicle replacement policy, although growth in the tourism bus segment may slow down [2]. Financial Performance and Valuation - The target price of RMB 32 is based on a DCF valuation method with a WACC of 6.5%, implying a projected P/E ratio of 16 times for 2025 [4]. - Revenue projections show a significant increase from RMB 27,042 million in 2023 to RMB 41,935 million in 2025, with net profit expected to rise from RMB 1,817 million in 2023 to RMB 4,347 million in 2025 [7]. Investor Sentiment - Recent investor feedback indicates a divergence in opinions, with some investors taking profits while others remain optimistic about the company's performance and cash dividends for 2024 and 2025 [3].