Yifeng Pharmary(603939) -·2025-01-15 07:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the stock with a target price of Rmb 38.00, indicating a potential upside from the current price of Rmb 24.45 [4][5][24]. Core Insights - The management of the company expects positive growth in Q424, with revenue and profit projected to increase at a faster rate in 2025 compared to 2024. The strategic closure of approximately 1,000 stores in 2024 is expected to be completed, leading to an increase in the proportion of franchise stores and potential large-scale acquisitions in 2025 [1][2]. - The pharmacy industry is anticipated to see an acceleration in store closures, with over 10,000 expected to shut down in 2025 due to stricter regulatory scrutiny and high initial investment costs. The average price-to-sales ratio (P/S) has decreased to 0.4 from 0.7, indicating a more favorable environment for acquirers in the merger and acquisition market [2][3]. - Currently, there is limited visibility on the positive impacts of policies for 2025, with only a few regions experiencing benefits from online prescriptions being accepted for reimbursement in pharmacies. Many areas still do not allow online prescriptions to be reimbursed through insurance accounts [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from Rmb 22,588 million in 2023 to Rmb 26,735 million in 2025, representing a growth rate of approximately 18.5% [7]. - Net profit is expected to increase from Rmb 1,412 million in 2023 to Rmb 1,715 million in 2025, reflecting a growth of about 21.4% [7]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from Rmb 1.16 in 2023 to Rmb 1.41 in 2025 [7]. Market Context - The company operates as a leading national chain pharmacy in China, focusing on steady expansion in central, eastern, southern, and northern regions, with a strategy to increase store density in existing markets and penetrate new markets every 2-3 years [10]. - The report highlights that the pharmacy industry is undergoing significant consolidation, which may increase competition among leading chains and affect expansion plans [2][3]. Valuation Metrics - The target price of Rmb 38.00 corresponds to a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 27 times for 2025, based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method [4][5]. - The report indicates a forecasted stock price increase of 55.4% and a dividend yield of 2.7%, leading to an overall expected return of 58.1% [9].