2024年12月金融数据点评：12月金融数据的几点信号

Financial Data Analysis - December 2024 new loans amounted to 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease compared to 1.17 trillion yuan in December 2023[1] - Personal loans increased by 350 billion yuan, with short-term loans up by 58.8 billion yuan and medium- and long-term loans up by 300 billion yuan[2] - Corporate loans increased by 490 billion yuan, significantly lower than the 891.6 billion yuan in the same period last year[2] - M2 growth rate reached 7.3% at the end of December, up 0.2 percentage points month-on-month[2] - New M1 growth rate turned positive at 1.2%, while old M1 growth rate improved to -1.4%[2] Social Financing Trends - December 2024 social financing increment was 2.85 trillion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase compared to 1.93 trillion yuan in December 2023[2] - 2024 total social financing increment was 32.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 trillion yuan[2] - Government bond net financing in 2024 was 11.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7 trillion yuan[2] - 2025 social financing increment is expected to be around 32.4 trillion yuan, with a year-end growth rate of about 7.5%[2] Bond Market Outlook - Bond market yields have significantly declined since late November 2024 due to non-bank interbank deposit pricing regulations and moderately loose monetary policy[2] - Commercial banks face a full curve inversion in bond investments, reflecting an over-anticipation of 2025 monetary policy easing[2] - Future bond market performance may be cautious due to potential economic stabilization and fiscal policy impacts[2]