轻工制造行业周观点：出口板块2024Q4业绩或延续，看好消费品补贴政策扩容

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that multiple regions are implementing home improvement subsidy policies, which are expected to boost sales in the home furnishing sector. The central government has allocated 81 billion yuan for the 2025 consumer goods replacement program, with the subsidy scale potentially doubling from last year to reach 300 billion yuan [4][6] - The paper industry is entering an upward cycle of prosperity due to improved supply-demand dynamics and successful price increases for pulp and paper products. The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the industry [4][6] - The report also discusses the packaging sector, noting the progress of Oricain's acquisition of COFCO Packaging and the potential benefits from new subsidies for digital products [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The light industry sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 2.2% compared to a 1.1% drop in the CSI 300 index. The home furnishing, paper, packaging, and cultural products sectors experienced varying declines [6][8] 2. Paper Sector Tracking - Raw material prices showed mixed trends, with domestic needle pulp averaging 5,920 yuan/ton (up 0.6% week-on-week) and domestic broadleaf pulp at 4,625 yuan/ton (up 0.8% week-on-week). The average price of waste paper was 1,560 yuan/ton (down 1.6% week-on-week) [12][19] - Finished paper prices included corrugated paper at 2,927 yuan/ton (down 0.4% week-on-week) and white cardboard at 4,300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [20][24] 3. Home Furnishing Sector Tracking - The report notes a significant drop in new home transactions, with major cities seeing a 30.49% decrease in sales week-on-week. However, the implementation of subsidy policies is expected to improve performance in the home furnishing sector [29][33] 4. Other Sector Tracking - The report mentions the increase in Brent crude oil prices to $77.24 per barrel (up 2.48% week-on-week) and the decline in polyethylene prices to 7,920 yuan/ton (down 2.70% week-on-week) [39][40]