COSCO SHIPPING Energy(600026) 光大证券·2025-01-15 08:20Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company expects a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%, while the non-recurring net profit is projected to decline by 4.4% [1] - The international oil transportation market is expected to continue its favorable trend in 2024, with the average VLCC TD3C-TCE rate at 34,896 USD/day, a decrease of approximately 3% compared to the previous year [2] - The U.S. sanctions on Russian oil tankers are anticipated to improve the supply-demand dynamics in the oil transportation sector [3] - The company is optimistic about the recovery of its performance in 2025, driven by an improving macroeconomic environment and increasing oil demand [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 3.96 billion yuan for 2024, with a 17.2% increase in net profit and a 4.4% decrease in non-recurring net profit [1] - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are 3.96 billion, 5.55 billion, and 6.77 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.83, 1.16, and 1.42 yuan per share [4] Market Dynamics - The oil transportation market is expected to see a tightening supply-demand balance from 2024 to 2026, with VLCC supply growth anticipated to be lower than demand recovery [4] - The average age of VLCCs is currently at 12.41 years, indicating a significant aging fleet that may constrain supply [3] Strategic Positioning - The company is focusing on optimizing its fleet structure and expanding its capacity to benefit from the anticipated market recovery [4] - The company has successfully managed its operational capacity and diversified its revenue streams through strategic planning and participation in pipeline transportation projects [2]