Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 11.30 [8] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady profit growth in 2024, driven by increased hospital coverage, market share expansion, and overseas revenue doubling [8] - Core products are accelerating their entry into hospitals, with new products enriching the product line [8] - The company's adjusted net profit CAGR from 2020 to 2024 is approximately 55% [8] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 547 million in 2022 to RMB 1,550 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 30.1% from 2024 to 2026 [3] - EBITDA is expected to increase from RMB 145 million in 2022 to RMB 596 million in 2026 [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to rise from RMB -22 million in 2022 to RMB 447 million in 2026 [3] - EPS is projected to grow from RMB -0.04 in 2022 to RMB 0.76 in 2026 [3] Product Performance - The company's products supported 190,000 neurointerventional surgeries in the first half of 2024 [8] - NUMEN® coils entered 240 new hospitals, Tubridge® stents entered 80 new hospitals, and WILLIS® covered stents entered 30 new hospitals [8] - Bridge® vertebral artery drug stents entered 230 new hospitals, and APOLLO™ intracranial stents entered nearly 120 new hospitals [8] - Neurohawk® thrombectomy stents entered over 150 new hospitals [8] Valuation Metrics - The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 18.4 in 2024 to 10.0 in 2026 [3] - The EV/EBITDA ratio is projected to decline from 10.2 in 2024 to 4.3 in 2026 [3] - ROE is forecasted to increase from -1.7% in 2022 to 16.7% in 2026 [3] Balance Sheet and Cash Flow - Total assets are expected to grow from RMB 1,817 million in 2022 to RMB 3,180 million in 2026 [9] - Cash and cash equivalents are projected to increase from RMB 828 million in 2022 to RMB 2,042 million in 2026 [9] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to rise from RMB 224 million in 2022 to RMB 555 million in 2026 [9] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin is expected to remain stable, ranging from 73.0% to 75.0% from 2024 to 2026 [10] - Net margin is projected to increase from -4.5% in 2022 to 28.8% in 2026 [10] - The current ratio is forecasted to improve from 5.3 in 2022 to 8.7 in 2026 [10]
微创脑科学：公司24年预期盈利水平稳健增长