【浙商宏观||李超】12月金融数据:M1为何继续抬升?

Group 1: M1 and Monetary Policy Insights - December M1 growth rate was -1.4%, an improvement from -3.7% in the previous month, exceeding market expectations of -3.7%[2] - The increase in M1 is attributed to the seasonal effect of the Spring Festival and the utilization of fiscal funds, with a significant impact from the timing of the holiday[8] - The central bank is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy in 2025, with potential cuts in reserve requirements exceeding 150 basis points and interest rate reductions over 30 basis points[11] Group 2: Credit and Financing Trends - In December, new RMB loans amounted to 990 billion yuan, slightly above the market expectation of 843 billion yuan, but still a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan[3] - The structure of credit showed an increase in household loans by 350 billion yuan, while corporate loans decreased by 4.016 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a drag on overall credit growth[4] - Social financing increased by 2.9 trillion yuan in December, with the main drag coming from loans, while government and corporate bonds contributed positively[6] Group 3: M2 and Economic Indicators - M2 growth rate rose to 7.3% in December, up from 7.1% in the previous month, supported by an increase in household and corporate deposits[8] - The total amount of RMB deposits decreased by 1.4 trillion yuan year-on-year, with household deposits increasing by 220 billion yuan, indicating a mixed response in the deposit landscape[8] - The cash in circulation (M0) showed a year-on-year growth of 13.0%, reflecting increased cash demand due to economic recovery and seasonal effects[10]