国君宏观|汇率韧性的政策底气

Central Bank's Exchange Rate Management Measures - The central bank's exchange rate management measures are divided into three stages based on cost and effectiveness: signaling through the counter-cyclical factor, offshore market liquidity regulation, and macro-prudential management, and finally, utilizing foreign exchange reserves and capital flow regulation[1] - In the first stage, the central bank uses the counter-cyclical factor to signal when the offshore exchange rate deviates significantly from the central parity, aiming to stabilize the exchange rate and reduce excessive fluctuations[2] - In the second stage, the central bank regulates offshore liquidity through tools like CNH Hibor and uses macro-prudential measures such as the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio (20% at peak), foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio (up to 10%), and cross-border financing macro-prudential adjustment parameter (up to 120%) to manage exchange rate risks[3][8][9][11] - In the third stage, the central bank relies on foreign exchange reserves and capital flow regulation, which, while effective, may reduce international confidence in the RMB and hinder capital market openness[4] Offshore Market and Policy Tools - The central bank and Hong Kong Monetary Authority collaborate to manage offshore RMB liquidity, with the total liquidity provided by HKMA reaching 350 billion yuan at its peak[7] - The central bank's policy toolbox for the offshore RMB market includes regular issuance of RMB treasury bonds and central bank bills in Hong Kong, as well as supporting bond repurchase business under Bond Connect[5] - The central bank's stance on exchange rates can be observed through the swap premium rate, which reflects its attitude towards future exchange rate movements[3] Risks and Market Trends - Key risks include exchange rate overshooting and pro-cyclical behavior exceeding expectations, which could destabilize the market[6] - RMB has shown strong resilience among non-dollar currencies, with the USD/CNH exchange rate fluctuating between 6.2 and 7.4, reflecting its stability[13] - Foreign investors primarily purchase Chinese government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, with total holdings reaching up to 3,000 billion yuan[12]