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招财日报2025.1.15 中国经济/科技行业/百济神州、巨子生物点评
Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-01-15 08:08

Macroeconomic Strategy - Recent policy stimulus has led to a rebound in government bond net financing and sales of housing and durable goods, with credit growth starting to recover from a low point[1] - Social financing stock, household medium-to-long term loans, and M2 growth have all shown improvement, but corporate credit demand remains weak[1] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a potential 50 basis point cut in the reserve requirement ratio in the first half of the year[1] - By the end of 2025, social financing scale and RMB loan balance growth may slightly increase to 8% and 8.1%, respectively[1] Industry Commentary - Global smartphone shipments in Q4 2024 grew by 2.4% year-on-year to 332 million units, driven by promotional activities and new model releases in China[2] - Xiaomi and Vivo outperformed competitors with shipment growth of 4.8% and 12.7%, while Apple and Samsung saw declines of 4.1% and 2.7%[2] - Global smartphone shipments are projected to grow by 3% in 2025, benefiting from the iPhone 17 cycle and AI integration[2] Company Analysis - BeiGene expects to achieve GAAP operating profit breakeven by 2025, with non-GAAP operating profit reaching $66 million in Q3 2024[4] - The company reported $188 million in operating cash flow for Q3 2024, marking its first positive quarterly cash flow[4] - BeiGene is advancing 13 new molecules into clinical trials in 2024, with promising early data expected for BGB-43395 in H1 2025[5] Product Pipeline and Market Position - Zebrutinib's global sales reached $690 million in Q3 2024, capturing approximately 25% of the market share[6] - Zebrutinib is the leading BTK inhibitor for new patients in the U.S. for first-line and relapsed/refractory chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)[6] - The company plans to initiate a head-to-head trial for BGB-16673 in late 2025, demonstrating confidence in its pipeline[7] Growth Projections - Giant Bio has raised its 2024 revenue growth guidance to over 50%, with net profit expected to grow around 40%[9] - The GMV for its brands on major online platforms is projected to reach 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase[10] - The company anticipates strong growth in its collagen injection products, with approvals expected in Q1 2025[11]