国君宏观|抢出口势大力沉韧性足

Export Performance - December exports increased by 10.7% year-on-year, up from 6.7% in the previous month, with the month-on-month momentum at its highest level in nearly five years, exceeding market expectations[1] - Exports to the United States and ASEAN countries showed resilience, while exports to other regions were the main drag on overall export growth[1] - Agricultural products and labor-intensive goods saw significant increases in export growth, while high-tech product exports declined[1] Export Dynamics - The strong month-on-month momentum in December was primarily driven by increased export efforts, with price-for-volume strategies being a secondary factor[2] - Exports to the U.S. outperformed seasonal trends, with a month-on-month growth rate exceeding seasonal patterns by 3.5 percentage points in December, following a 2.7 percentage point outperformance in November[2] - The phenomenon of "export grabbing" is expected to continue in the short term, with potential for further expansion across more industries[2] Economic Impact - Net exports are projected to contribute significantly to GDP growth, with an expected increase of 1.4 percentage points in 2024[3] - In 2025, the resilience of exports priced in RMB is anticipated, supported by recent RMB depreciation and a potential rebound in export prices following an increase in China's PPI[3] Risks - There are increasing risks from global economic fluctuations and external uncertainties[4]