国君金工|春节前一周涨跌的历史规律

Market Performance Before Spring Festival - Since 2004, the average return of the Shanghai Composite Index in the five trading days before the Spring Festival is 1.8%, with an 81% probability of increase[1] - The years with declines before the Spring Festival were 2018, 2020, and 2022, attributed to external events like market turmoil and the Russia-Ukraine conflict[1] Index Performance - Among major indices, the ChiNext Index, STAR 50, and Double Innovation 50 had the best average returns of 3.54%, 2.93%, and 3.40% respectively in the last four Spring Festivals since 2021[1] - The Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 indices achieved slightly lower returns, all above 2%[1] - The Guozheng 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, had a negative average return[1] Sector Performance - The top five sectors with the highest probability of performance before the Spring Festival are Defense, Beauty Care, Food & Beverage, Pharmaceutical & Biological, and Electric Equipment, with probabilities of 54%, 41%, 36%, 33%, and 32% respectively[1] - Electric Equipment, Electronics, Pharmaceutical & Biological, Beauty Care, and Nonferrous Metals had the highest average returns of 2.5%, 2.4%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 1.9% respectively[1] Investment Style Insights - Consumer and growth style indices have outperformed others, with the growth style index ranking first among five styles six times since 2013[2] - Large and mid-cap styles are stronger, while small and micro-cap styles are weaker; high valuation styles outperform low valuation styles[2] - Dividend indices show average returns close to 0, indicating a lack of calendar effect[2]