CHINA COAL ENERGY(601898) 广发证券·2025-01-15 09:31Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a current price of 11.44 RMB and a reasonable value of 14.18 RMB for A-shares, and 8.83 HKD with a reasonable value of 10.46 HKD for H-shares [3]. Core Views - The company is expected to fully complete its production plan for 2024, with the Weizigou and Libi mines anticipated to contribute additional output starting in 2025. The company has a robust resource reserve and potential for both organic and external growth [8]. Financial Summary - Revenue: The company's revenue is projected to decline from 220,577 million RMB in 2022 to 188,572 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of -8.0% in 2022 and -12.5% in 2023, with a slight recovery expected in 2026 at 3.6% [7][11]. - Net Profit: The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease from 18,259 million RMB in 2022 to 18,215 million RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 32.9% in 2022 and a modest 0.6% in 2025 [7][11]. - EPS: Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.38 RMB in 2022, 1.47 RMB in 2023, and 1.37 RMB in 2024, with a gradual increase to 1.43 RMB by 2026 [7][11]. - EBITDA: The EBITDA is projected to decline from 51,143 million RMB in 2022 to 42,656 million RMB in 2024, with a slight recovery expected thereafter [7][11]. Production and Sales Data - Coal Production: The company is expected to produce 138 million tons of commercial coal in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. The total coal sales are projected to be 285 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [8]. - Chemical Production: The chemical product output is expected to be 5.69 million tons in 2024, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%. However, Q4 production is expected to show a positive trend with a 4.9% increase year-on-year [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the company's medium to long-term growth will primarily come from the remaining under-construction mines and the expansion of high-quality mine capacities, alongside the completion of certain coal chemical projects. The company is expected to maintain its "Buy" rating for both A and H shares [8].