锂电材料行业景气有望见底回升

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the lithium battery materials sector, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [35]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry is expected to see a recovery in its economic conditions after a prolonged downturn, with signs of price stabilization and potential investment opportunities emerging [5][31]. - The overall price decline in the lithium battery supply chain has slowed, with significant reductions in prices for key materials such as lithium carbonate and separators, which have seen declines of 73% and 60% respectively since late 2021 [5][8]. - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023, indicating a significant contraction in new capacity investments [10][12]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - The lithium battery materials supply chain has experienced a significant price drop since late 2021, with separators down 60%, battery-grade lithium carbonate down 73%, and artificial graphite down 46%. However, by early 2024, the price declines began to stabilize, with separators expected to decrease by 30% for the year but stabilize in the second half [5][8][9]. Supply and Investment - The planned investment in the lithium battery sector for 2024 is projected to be less than 320 billion, a decrease of over 70% compared to 2023 and over 77% compared to 2022. The investment in electrolytes and copper foil is expected to drop by more than 90% compared to 2023 [10][12]. Demand Growth - Global lithium-ion battery shipments are expected to reach 1545.1 GWh in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.5%. The demand for batteries in the energy storage sector is also anticipated to grow significantly, with domestic energy storage tender volumes exceeding 190 GW, more than doubling year-on-year [16][20][27]. Future Outlook - The introduction of new vehicle replacement subsidies in 2025 is expected to further boost the growth of domestic new energy vehicle sales, which are projected to maintain a growth rate of around 20% [24][31]. The demand for energy storage batteries is also expected to increase due to regulatory changes requiring longer storage durations [30][31].