Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a positive outlook for the industry fundamentals and an expectation that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [18]. Core Viewpoints - The TV panel prices are showing an upward trend in January 2025, with 65-inch and 75-inch panels increasing by 178 and 360, while smaller panels (32 to 55 inches) remain stable compared to December 2024 [2][4]. - The domestic panel market is expected to benefit from the "old-for-new" appliance replacement policy, which is projected to sustain throughout 2025, leading to increased panel sales [6]. - The exit of major players like Samsung and LG from the TFT TV panel industry has resulted in a higher concentration of market share among domestic manufacturers, with a reported 68.6% market share for Chinese manufacturers by November 2024 [11]. - The trend towards larger TV sizes is evident, with the market share of 85-inch TVs increasing from 10% to 20% in 2024, indicating a growing demand for larger panels [13]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - In January 2025, TV panel prices are on the rise, with specific increases noted for larger sizes. The 65-inch panel is now at 242, and the 85-inch at $360, while smaller sizes remain stable [2][4]. Market Dynamics - The "old-for-new" policy has led to a 7.7% increase in sales area for large panels in 2024, and this trend is expected to continue into 2025, further boosting sales [6]. - The exit of Samsung and LG has reduced the number of major players in the market, enhancing the competitive landscape for remaining domestic manufacturers [11]. Size Trends - The retail market for 85-inch TVs has seen a significant increase in share, rising from 10% to 20% in 2024, reflecting a shift towards larger screen sizes [13].
电视面板行业景气有望见底回升
First Capital Securities·2025-01-15 11:10