家用电器行业周报：2024年12月家电内销提速增长，继续看好2025年国补拉动弹性

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended (Maintain)" [1] Core Viewpoints - The 2024 "old-for-new" policy has shown significant effects, leading to a substantial improvement in home appliance demand starting from September 2024, with December 2024 seeing a notable increase in retail sales across various categories [2][12] - The 2025 "old-for-new" policy is set to expand, with increased subsidies and additional product categories included, which is expected to further stimulate demand in the home appliance sector [4][18] Summary by Sections 1. Home Appliance Sales Growth - In December 2024, various home appliance categories experienced significant year-on-year growth in both offline and online sales: - Air Conditioners: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 100%, 84%, and 8% respectively; online sales increased by 35%, 29%, and 4% [12][16] - Refrigerators: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 137%, 107%, and 12% respectively; online sales increased by 15%, 16%, and decreased by 1% [3][12] - Washing Machines: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 68%, 46%, and 13% respectively; online sales increased by 13%, 19%, and decreased by 6% [3][12] - Range Hoods: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 115%, 90%, and 11% respectively; online sales increased by 39%, 36%, and 2% [3][12] - Gas Stoves: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 112%, 69%, and 24% respectively; online sales increased by 43%, 47%, and decreased by 3% [3][12] - Televisions: Offline sales value, volume, and price increased by 66%, 41%, and 15% respectively; online sales increased by 30%, 15%, and 13% [3][12] - Robotic Vacuums: Online sales value, volume, and price increased by 103%, 94%, and 5% respectively [3][12] 2. Price Tracking - In January 2025, the average prices for key materials showed the following trends: - Copper: Average price increased by 1.38% month-on-month to 74,744 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 9.22% [21] - Aluminum: Average price decreased by 0.33% month-on-month to 19,734 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 3.17% [21] - ABS: Average price decreased by 0.21% month-on-month to 11,800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 11.32% [21] - Hot-rolled Steel: Average price decreased by 2.23% month-on-month to 3,642 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.95% [21] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued investment in leading white goods companies that benefit from subsidies and offer high dividends, including Hisense Home Appliances, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Midea Group [29] - It also suggests investing in black goods leaders like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics, which are experiencing marginal reversals and continuous profit improvements [29] - Additionally, it highlights small appliance leader Supor, which benefits from national subsidies for rice cookers and offers high dividends [29]