25年煤炭年度策略报告：以进促稳，红利套息

Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating for the coal industry to "Market Perform" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The coal price has repeatedly validated its bottom in 2024, with continuous valuation recovery and an increase in risk appetite [10][15]. - Supply recovery in Shanxi is limited, with some coal types experiencing year-on-year shrinkage, while Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang contribute significantly to the incremental supply [23][30]. - Demand remains differentiated, with a focus on coal for electricity and chemicals, as stable electricity demand and the optimization of coking capacity support terminal demand [42][49]. Summary by Sections 1. Review - In 2024, coal prices showed stability at the bottom, with a strong support level around 800 RMB/ton for thermal coal [10][11]. - The coal index outperformed coal prices, indicating an increase in investment risk appetite within the industry [15][20]. 2. Supply - Shanxi's recovery has been limited, with a negative growth rate in coal production, while Inner Mongolia has become the leading coal-producing province [30][32]. - The production of coking coal and anthracite has seen a decline due to regulatory impacts, while thermal coal production is expected to increase [35]. 3. Demand - The demand for coal is showing a split trend, with electricity demand expected to grow while non-electric demand remains weak due to its correlation with real estate and infrastructure [42][43]. - The coking industry is undergoing capacity optimization, and manufacturing and steel exports are supporting steel production levels [48][49]. 4. Import Coal - There has been a slight increase in imported coal, with a continuation of the import structure from 2023, and a decrease in import prices [61][62]. - The necessity for imported coal has decreased as domestic production recovers, leading to a more balanced supply-demand situation [61]. 5. Different Scenario Assumptions for Coal Types - For thermal coal, the price is expected to remain at a solid bottom in 2025, with potential upward adjustments under counter-cyclical policies [2]. - The demand for coking coal will determine its price trajectory, with expectations of price increases under counter-cyclical scenarios [2]. 6. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend stocks and those with high elasticity in dividends, recommending companies like China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [3].