东海证券：晨会纪要-20250116

Battery and Energy Storage Industry - Electric vehicle sales performed well, with December 2024 retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 1.302 million units, a year-on-year increase of 37.5% and a month-on-month increase of 2.6% [9] - The total retail sales of new energy vehicles from January to December 2024 reached 10.899 million units, a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [9] - The supply side of the industry is undergoing orderly adjustments, with prices stabilizing: lithium carbonate prices are fluctuating, lithium iron phosphate prices are at the breakeven point, graphite anode prices are near cost levels, and separator and electrolyte demand remains stable [9] - The domestic energy storage market completed 59.24GW/191.26GWh of procurement in 2024, with lithium iron phosphate accounting for nearly 95% of the demand [11] - The average price of 2-hour energy storage systems in 2024 was 0.628 yuan/Wh, a 43% decrease from 2023, while the average price of 2-hour energy storage EPC was 1.181 yuan/Wh, with significant fluctuations throughout the year [11] Banking Industry - The positive effects of debt resolution and real estate policies are evident, with financial data continuing to improve [15] - In December 2024, government bond issuance reached a new high of 1.76 trillion yuan, significantly driving social financing [16] - Corporate loans remained weak, with medium and long-term loans underperforming, while household loans improved, adding 350 billion yuan in December 2024 [16] - Non-financial corporate deposits increased by 1.81 trillion yuan, driven by the acceleration of government debt resolution funds, which also contributed to the improvement in M1 growth [17] - Fiscal-driven policies and easing retail pressures are expected to support further upward repair of social financing and M2, with the fiscal front-loading likely to result in a low-high-low pattern for social financing throughout the year [17] A-Share Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose sharply, closing at 3240 points, up 2.54%, with the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index also rising significantly [23] - The internet e-commerce sector led the gains, rising 7.45%, followed by automation equipment, software development, and cultural media sectors [25] - The cultural media sector surged 6.8%, with significant net inflows of large single funds exceeding 2 billion yuan, indicating strong technical recovery and potential for further upward momentum [25] - The market sentiment was highly positive, with 99% of stocks closing higher and 242 stocks rising more than 9% [24]