中原证券：晨会聚焦-20250116

Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, driven by supportive real estate and consumer policies, which are expected to benefit the industry significantly [6][40]. - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting domestic demand, with a notable increase in the deficit scale for 2025 [4][8]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing growth, with a projected increase in global semiconductor sales and a focus on AI-driven applications [19][20][22]. Domestic Market Performance - The A-share market has shown volatility, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,168.52, down 1.33%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 9,795.94, down 1.80% [3]. - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 13.73 and 34.13, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [9][12]. Economic Policies and Strategies - The central bank has paused government bond buybacks due to persistent supply-demand imbalances in the bond market, with future operations contingent on market conditions [4][8]. - The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that fiscal revenue for 2024 is expected to meet budget targets, with a clear and aggressive fiscal policy direction for 2025 [4][8]. Industry-Specific Insights - The home furnishing sector is anticipated to benefit from the "old-for-new" consumption policy, which is expected to stimulate demand in 2025 [24][25]. - The semiconductor industry is projected to maintain an upward cycle, with AI being a significant growth driver, and the domestic semiconductor equipment sales are expected to rise [20][22][23]. - The telecommunications sector is seeing a recovery, with a 2.73% increase in the communication industry index in December, outperforming major indices [27][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the home furnishing sector, such as Oppein Home Group and Sophia, as well as companies benefiting from the semiconductor and AI sectors [26][31]. - The telecommunications sector is also highlighted for its potential, with recommendations to consider companies like ZTE and China Telecom due to their stable dividend yields and growth prospects [31].