农林牧渔行业月度点评：2024年第三批转基因安全证书发放，关注转基因商业化进展

Industry Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronized with the Market" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [3] Core Views - The third batch of genetically modified safety certificates was issued in 2024, indicating progress in the commercialization of genetically modified crops [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector underperformed the broader market in December 2024, with the sector index falling by 4.09% compared to a 0.76% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index and a 0.47% rise in the CSI 300 Index [9] - The pet food sector showed strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 42.39% in 2024, while the animal health sector declined by 28.67% [15] Market Performance - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector index fell by 11.58% in 2024, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 24.24% and the CSI 300 Index by 26.26% [14] - In December 2024, the pet food sector led with an 11.06% increase, while the fruit and vegetable processing sector declined by 13.12% [9] Key Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Guibao Pet, all rated as "Buy" with expected EPS growth in 2024 and 2025 [7] - Muyuan Foods is expected to achieve an EPS of 3.16 yuan in 2024, with a PE ratio of 11.80, while Wens Foodstuff Group is expected to achieve an EPS of 1.59 yuan with a PE ratio of 10.03 [7] Livestock and Poultry - In December 2024, the average price of white-feathered broilers in major producing areas was 7.56 yuan/kg, down 1.42% month-on-month but up 2.13% year-on-year [8] - The average price of broiler chicks was 3.98 yuan/kg, down 6.70% month-on-month but up 136.62% year-on-year [8] - The average price of live pigs was 15.78 yuan/kg, down 4.75% month-on-month but up 10.08% year-on-year [9] Feed and Planting - Domestic corn spot prices fell in December 2024, while CBOT corn futures prices rose [9] - The domestic corn inventory-to-consumption ratio for 2024/25 is expected to be 65.3%, down 3.6 percentage points from 2023/24 [9] - The global corn inventory-to-consumption ratio is expected to be 20.7%, down 1.5 percentage points from 2023/24 [9] Pet Food - In November 2024, China's export value of retail-packaged dog or cat food was $122 million, down 5.40$1.35 billion, up 21.34% year-on-year [10] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends maintaining a "Synchronized with the Market" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [11] - Key investment opportunities include pig farming, poultry farming, feed, animal health, seed industry, and pet food [11] - Companies to watch include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Sunner Development, and CP Group [11] Seed Industry - The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, with 8 new genetically modified plant safety certificates issued in December 2024, including 5 for corn and 3 for soybeans [11] - Companies to watch in the seed industry include Dabeinong, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [11] Pet Food Industry - The pet food industry is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing pet ownership and rising demand for high-quality pet food [11] - Companies to watch include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Pet, and Petkit [11]