GWMOTOR(601633) 光大证券·2025-01-16 00:39Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for both A and H shares of the company [4][5] Core Views - The company's performance for 2024 is expected to show a significant increase in net profit, with a forecasted growth of 76.6% to 85.1%, reaching between 12.4 billion to 13 billion CNY [1] - The company is focusing on high-end and global development, with a positive trend in both areas [1][2] - The overseas market is projected to continue its robust growth, with non-Russian regions becoming the largest contributors [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The forecasted net profit for 2024 is expected to be between 12.4 billion to 13 billion CNY, with a non-recurring net profit increase of 94.5% to 106.9%, reaching 9.4 billion to 10 billion CNY [1] - In Q4 2024, the net profit is projected to be between 1.97 billion to 2.57 billion CNY, with a non-recurring net profit of 1.03 billion to 1.63 billion CNY [1] Sales and Market Development - The company anticipates a slight increase in total vehicle sales for 2024, projected at 1.233 million units, with a significant rise in new energy vehicle sales by 22.8% to 322,000 units [2] - The company plans to launch new and updated models in 2025 to strengthen its position in niche markets [2] International Expansion - The overseas sales are expected to grow by 43.4% in 2024, reaching 453,000 units, accounting for 36.7% of total sales [3] - The company is focusing on expanding its presence in markets such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Brazil, with ongoing projects to enhance its competitive edge [3] Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the 2024 net profit forecast down by 2.5% to 12.82 billion CNY, while increasing the 2025 and 2026 forecasts by 4.9% and 6.1% to 15.45 billion CNY and 17.79 billion CNY respectively [4] - The report highlights the company's improving profitability metrics, with a projected return on equity (ROE) of 16.72% for 2024 and 17.52% for 2025 [12]