天然气行业系列研究之一：乌克兰停止俄罗斯过境天然气，影响几何？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for companies with strong natural gas resource advantages such as China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [4][52] - New Natural Gas is recommended for its growth potential [4][52] - Cautious recommendation for Guanghui Energy due to short-term TTF price increase [4][52] - New Hope Group and Jiufeng Energy are highlighted for their rich offshore gas resource pools [4][52] Core Insights - The EU's reliance on Russian gas through Ukraine has reached 92.34%, with Slovakia, Austria, and Hungary being the main consumers [1][13] - The Turkstream and TANAP pipelines are currently at capacity, limiting short-term alternatives to Ukrainian gas [2][21] - International LNG exports are constrained, with Russia's LNG capacity maxed out and new projects delayed due to sanctions [3][24] - The report anticipates a tight natural gas supply in early 2025, with prices likely to remain high due to low EU inventory levels [41][47] Summary by Sections Section 1: EU Gas Imports - In 2024, EU gas consumption decreased by 1.8%, with a significant drop in demand from industrial and residential sectors [8][10] - The EU's total gas imports fell by 6.11%, but imports from Russia increased by 21.12% [10][11] Section 2: Alternative Supply Analysis - Turkstream's capacity is fully utilized, and TANAP's expansion is uncertain due to high investment costs [2][21] - International LNG cannot meet the short-term demand gap left by the cessation of Ukrainian transit gas [3][24] Section 3: Supply Tightness and Price Outlook - The report predicts continued tightness in natural gas supply through the first half of 2025, with potential price increases due to low inventory levels [41][47] - By 2026, international gas prices may decline but will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels [4][47] Section 4: Investment Recommendations - Companies with strong natural gas resources are recommended, including CNOOC, Sinopec, and PetroChina [4][52] - New Natural Gas is highlighted for its growth potential, while Guanghui Energy is given a cautious recommendation [4][52]