2024年12月外贸数据点评：外贸仍强，高顺差延续

Trade Performance - In December 2024, China's total import and export value reached 4.07 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%[10] - Exports amounted to 2.41 trillion RMB, growing by 10.9%, while imports were 1.66 trillion RMB, increasing by 1.3%[10] - The trade surplus for December was 752.91 billion RMB, equivalent to 104.84 billion USD, marking a historical high[10][22] Export Dynamics - Exports to major developed countries, excluding Japan, showed recovery, particularly a significant increase in exports to the United States[11][13] - Exports to ASEAN countries continued to grow rapidly, while exports to BRICS nations, except Russia, declined[11] - Labor-intensive goods, excluding toys and bags, saw an overall increase in exports, with notable recovery in automotive exports[11][16] Import Trends - Import growth improved significantly in December, with most major imported goods, except soybeans, crude oil, and coal, showing positive growth[11][19] - The growth rate of mechanical and electrical imports turned positive, supporting overall import performance[11][19] Economic Outlook - The report suggests that external trade remains stable, and domestic demand is expected to improve, contributing to sustained economic recovery[5][26] - The soft exchange rate is believed to have a positive impact on exports, despite uncertainties regarding potential tariffs and trade policies from the U.S.[5][26] Risk Factors - Potential risks include worsening geopolitical events, changes in international financial conditions, and unexpected shifts in U.S.-China policies[6][27]