CCA(603100) 广发证券·2025-01-16 02:06Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a current price of 22.11 CNY and a fair value of 26.02 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company is undergoing a change in control, with the major shareholder, China Four Union Instrument Group, transferring 19.25% of its shares to China National Machinery Industry Corporation at a premium of 10% over the market price, aimed at optimizing state capital layout [7]. - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 7.93 billion CNY, 8.91 billion CNY, and 10.36 billion CNY respectively, and assigns a 15x PE valuation for 2025, leading to a fair value estimate of 26.02 CNY per share [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company's revenue is projected to grow from 6,370 million CNY in 2022 to 10,212 million CNY by 2026, with growth rates of 16.1% in 2022, 16.3% in 2023, and 14.3% in both 2025 and 2026 [2][10]. - Net Profit: The net profit is expected to increase from 579 million CNY in 2022 to 1,036 million CNY in 2026, with a growth rate of 7.5% in 2022 and 28.4% in 2023 [2][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is projected to rise from 1.47 CNY in 2022 to 2.02 CNY in 2026 [2][10]. - Valuation Ratios: The report indicates a decrease in the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 21.29 in 2022 to 10.96 in 2026, suggesting an improving valuation over time [2][10]. Balance Sheet Overview - Total Assets: Expected to grow from 7,456 million CNY in 2022 to 11,549 million CNY by 2026 [8]. - Total Liabilities: Projected to increase from 4,034 million CNY in 2022 to 5,854 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - Shareholder Equity: Anticipated to rise from 3,409 million CNY in 2022 to 5,670 million CNY in 2026 [8]. Cash Flow Analysis - Operating Cash Flow: Expected to increase from 569 million CNY in 2022 to 924 million CNY in 2026 [8]. - Net Cash Increase: The net cash increase is projected to be negative in 2022 at -510 million CNY, turning positive in subsequent years, reaching 601 million CNY by 2026 [8].