国君宏观|“沪金溢价”是当下重要的货币现象

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit - Social financing stock growth rate increased to 8.0% in December 2024, up from 7.8% previously, with new social financing reaching 2.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 924.9 billion yuan[1] - Government bonds remained a stable component of social financing, with net financing of 1.76 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 828.8 billion yuan[1] - Corporate bonds were a key support for social financing in December, with a year-on-year increase of 258.8 billion yuan, driven by low base effects and lower financing costs[1] - New credit in December was 990 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 180 billion yuan, influenced by debt resolution policies[2] Group 2: Monetary Indicators - M2 growth rate slightly increased to 7.3% in December 2024, up from 7.1% previously, while M1 growth rate improved to -1.4% from -3.7%, narrowing the M1-M2 spread[3] - Deposit growth rate declined to 6.3% in December from 6.9%, while M2 growth increased, reflecting the impact of debt resolution on fiscal deposits[3] - M0 (cash in circulation) saw significant year-on-year growth due to seasonal cash demand ahead of the Spring Festival[3] Group 3: Real Estate and Credit Expansion - Residential credit continued to expand, with a 14.4% year-on-year increase in commercial housing transaction area in 30 major cities, up from 11.6% in November[2] - First-tier cities saw a year-on-year decline, while second-tier cities experienced growth, and third-tier cities saw a narrowing decline[2] - Early January data showed a decline in commercial housing transactions in first- and second-tier cities, raising concerns about the sustainability of residential credit expansion[2] Group 4: Currency and Capital Flows - The "Shanghai Gold Premium" turned positive, reflecting market expectations for the exchange rate around 7.38, indicating a slight increase in domestic capital seeking overseas diversification[4] - The "Shanghai Gold Premium" and "Swap Premium" show convergence, suggesting that holding Shanghai gold is a good hedging strategy in a high swap premium environment[4] Group 5: Risks - The repair process of private sector balance sheets may fall short of expectations[5]