汽车2024年销量数据点评：汽车行业：以旧换新范围扩大，混动趋势延续

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" for the automotive sector, indicating an expectation of performance that exceeds the market benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [24]. Core Insights - The automotive market in China is expected to continue growing in 2025, supported by the expanded vehicle trade-in policies and subsidies for replacing old vehicles with new energy vehicles or fuel-efficient cars [2][3]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is increasing, with NEVs accounting for 40.9% of total new car sales in 2024, a rise of 9.3 percentage points from 2023 [2]. - The export share of Chinese automobiles is expanding, with total exports reaching 5.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.3% [3]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2024, the total production and sales of automobiles reached 31.282 million and 31.436 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3.7% and 4.5% [1]. - The domestic sales of passenger vehicles totaled 22.608 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [1]. Policy Impact - The introduction of trade-in policies in April and July 2024 is expected to boost demand, with strong sales performance noted in December 2024, where sales reached 2.694 million units, up 13.6% year-on-year [1][2]. New Energy Vehicles - In 2024, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales surged by 83.3% to 5.141 million units, while pure electric vehicle sales increased by 15.5% to 7.719 million units [2]. - The market is witnessing a shift towards hybrid models due to their advantages in cost, range, and consumer acceptance [2]. Export Trends - The export of traditional fuel vehicles grew by 23.5% to 4.574 million units, while new energy vehicle exports reached 1.284 million units, a 6.7% increase [3]. - The export of pure electric vehicles declined by 10.4% to 987,000 units, while plug-in hybrid exports soared by 193.7% to 297,000 units [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the smart vehicle segment, as the penetration of new energy vehicles accelerates, with leading companies establishing competitive advantages in data and technology [10]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Seres, Jianghuai Automobile, and BAIC BluePark, which are benefiting from advancements in smart vehicle technology [10].