电子通信2025年行业策略报告：AI端侧和AI基建新幕起，电子通信大国崛起

Industry Overview - The electronics industry experienced a volatile upward trend in 2024, with the Shenwan Electronics Index rising by 18.52% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 14.68% [13][16] - The electronics sector ranked fifth in terms of growth among all industries in 2024, with a valuation of 54 times, placing it fourth in terms of price-to-earnings ratio [16][19] - Within the electronics sector, the components sub-sector saw the highest growth at 29.63%, while digital chip design led the tertiary sub-sectors with a 41.14% increase [25] Semiconductor Sector - AI-driven applications such as AI glasses, AI toys, and AI headphones are expected to drive the next generation of terminal revolution, with significant investment opportunities in the AI terminal supply chain [3] - The semiconductor industry is entering a critical phase of self-reliance, particularly in areas like equipment, advanced packaging, HBM, and substrates, due to tightening US sanctions [3] - 3D DRAM and quantum computing are emerging fields with significant potential, with 3D DRAM expected to become mainstream as traditional DRAM technology approaches its limits [63][69] Consumer Electronics - AI PCs and AI smartphones are set to drive a new wave of growth, with AI PC penetration expected to reach 65% by 2028, driven by AI model integration and hardware upgrades [81][82] - AI smartphones are redefining the market with features like efficient computing power, real-world perception, and personalized AI assistants, creating new opportunities in the supply chain [94][95] - The global AI toy market is projected to grow from $1.8 billion in 2023 to $30 billion by 2030, driven by the integration of AI in educational and companion toys [40] Automotive Electronics - The automotive industry is rapidly adopting intelligent driving technologies, with L2+ autonomous driving penetration exceeding 50% in 2024, and L3 testing underway in several regions [109][110] - Chinese automakers are investing heavily in AI computing centers to support autonomous driving model training, with companies like Geely and XPeng leading the charge [114][115] - The demand for computing power and in-vehicle sensors is expected to surge as smart driving technologies become more advanced and widespread [119] Computing Hardware - Domestic computing hardware is entering a phase of rapid expansion, with companies like ByteDance leading large-scale investments in AI models and related hardware [6] - The global advanced packaging market is projected to grow from $37.1 billion in 2023 to $94.4 billion by 2032, driven by AI, data centers, and automotive chips [51][53] - HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) is becoming increasingly important for AI and high-performance computing, with domestic manufacturers like Wuhan Xinxin and ChangXin Memory making early strides [55] Quantum Computing - Quantum computing is making significant strides, with Google's Willow quantum chip achieving a breakthrough in error reduction, paving the way for large-scale quantum computers [76][77] - China is also advancing in quantum computing, with the release of the 504-bit superconducting quantum computing chip "Xiaohong," which is expected to drive practical applications in various fields [74] - The quantum computing industry is expected to see widespread adoption, with significant policy support and investments from major economies worldwide [72][73]