2024年12月美国CPI数据点评：美国CPI触及短期高点，料阶段性下行

Inflation Outlook - The U.S. inflation is expected to experience a "first decline then rise" trend in 2025, driven by two main factors: the delayed impact of Trump's policies and a high base effect, along with expectations of increased shale oil production and a downward trend in housing inflation, which will exert temporary downward pressure on inflation from January to April[2]. - Trump's tax cuts, tariffs, and immigration policies are anticipated to raise inflation, but their effects are expected to manifest gradually, with tax cuts likely taking effect in Q3 2025 and immigration policies impacting wage inflation with an approximate 8-month lag[2]. CPI Data Analysis - In December 2024, the U.S. CPI rose by 2.89% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.9%, while the core CPI increased by 3.24%, also below the forecast of 3.3%[3]. - The month-on-month CPI rose by 0.39%, compared to an expectation of 0.4%, and the core CPI increased by 0.23%, below the anticipated 0.3%[3]. Market Reactions - The weaker-than-expected core CPI data cooled previously crowded strong dollar trades, leading to a shift in market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from September to June[3]. - Following the CPI release, the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields declined, while U.S. stocks and commodities saw an uptick[3]. Structural Data Insights - Super core inflation showed a decline, correlating with weaker hourly wage growth. Core goods saw a month-on-month increase of 0.05%, while housing inflation rose by 0.26% month-on-month, with year-on-year housing inflation at 4.57%[3]. - The relationship between housing inflation and home prices has shifted, indicating that housing inflation is likely to continue its downward trend in Q1 2025[4]. Strategic Implications - The anticipated decline in inflation from January to April may lead to an overestimation of inflation's downward trajectory by the market, potentially creating a false sense of achieving the 2% inflation target by April[4]. - As Trump's fiscal policies begin to take shape in the second half of 2025, inflation risks may rise again, reversing the current narrative of rate cuts[4]. Risk Factors - Market volatility risks, deviations from expected data, and geopolitical tensions are highlighted as potential risks that could impact inflation and market stability[4].