A股策略点评报告：调整接近尾声 春季行情有望开启

Core Viewpoints - The market adjustment is nearing its end, with a new value center projected between 3200-3300 points. The recent adjustment around 3140 is consistent with previous low points, remaining within a larger oscillation range. The extreme downside potential for the market in 2025 is estimated at 10%, roughly around 3000 points, indicating limited downward momentum and space for the market. The current adjustments are primarily due to short-term uncertainties, particularly regarding exchange rates and the bond market, but positive policy signals are expected to reduce market panic, leading to a probable recovery phase [4][5]. - A spring market rally is anticipated, as historically, A-shares have seen a rally in spring except for 2022. The first quarter is characterized by strong policy expectations, with various policies gradually being implemented, fostering a positive market outlook. The core influencing factor for the market in 2025 remains policy, which is expected to continue driving the market upward despite potential fluctuations. The performance verification period will occur in March and April, making gradual market recovery a likely event [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests actively positioning in large technology and large consumer sectors. The current market adjustment presents a favorable opportunity for long-term investment rather than a time for panic. Key areas of focus in the large technology sector include humanoid robots, AI applications, and low-altitude developments. In the large consumer sector, attention should be directed towards policy-driven areas such as home appliances, consumer electronics, cultural tourism, medical beauty, and food and beverage. Additionally, some cyclical industries that are clearing out at the end of their cycles, such as photovoltaics, wind energy, chemicals, and non-ferrous metals, are also recommended for consideration [5].