美国12月CPI数据点评：核心通胀降温

Macroeconomic Analysis - US December CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, meeting expectations, while core CPI year-on-year was 3.2%, slightly below expectations[2] - Energy prices drove the CPI increase, with energy items rising 2.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the overall inflation[3] - Core services, particularly housing rents, remained a key driver of inflation, with housing rents rising 0.3% month-on-month[3] Market Trends and Implications - The US economy may face downward pressure in the future, with inflation likely to remain relatively controlled due to tightening financial conditions[4] - Trump's potential tariff policies, including a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, could lead to secondary inflation pressures[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fell significantly after the inflation data release, indicating increased attractiveness of US bonds[5] Investment Strategy - US stocks may face valuation and concentration risks, despite the overall positive impact of lower interest rates[5] - The market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points over the next year, as reflected in CME FedWatch data[17] - The S&P 500 forward PE ratio stood at 24.6X as of early January, indicating potential overvaluation[16]