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英大宏观点评（2025年第2期，总第16期）：企业存款增速回升
British Securities·2025-01-16 06:08

Monetary Supply and Economic Indicators - December M0 balance reached 12.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13%, up from 12.7% previously[3] - December M1 balance was 67.1 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.4%, but improved from a previous decline of 3.7%[3] - December M2 balance stood at 313.53 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.3%, slightly up from 7.1% previously[3] Financing and Investment Trends - Social financing stock in December was 408.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[3] - New RMB loans in December totaled 840.7 billion yuan, with a net decrease in foreign currency loans of 67.5 billion yuan, resulting in a total of 773.2 billion yuan in new loans, which is a decrease of 272.5 billion yuan year-on-year[3] - December's new corporate bond financing was -15.3 billion yuan, while domestic stock financing for non-financial enterprises was 48.3 billion yuan, leading to a total direct financing of 33 billion yuan, an increase of 190.3 billion yuan year-on-year[3] Deposit Growth and Market Conditions - December corporate deposits, fiscal deposits, and non-bank financial institution deposits changed by -0.53%, -3.67%, and 15.76% respectively, with previous values of -2.42%, 8.07%, and 30.81%[3] - The decline in fiscal deposit growth indicates local governments are utilizing bond funds for project payments, while improved real estate sales and consumption measures are boosting corporate income and deposit growth[3] - A-share market experienced a phase of adjustment, leading to decreased trading enthusiasm and a slowdown in non-bank financial institution deposit growth[3] Risk Factors - Escalation of global trade wars is causing external demand growth to slow, increasing domestic overcapacity pressure[3] - Unexpected slowdown in the U.S. economy is affecting major overseas economies' stock and commodity markets, which in turn impacts A-share performance and domestic economic growth[3]