2024年12月社融数据点评：社融转为同比多增

Macroeconomic Trends - Core CPI has risen for 3 consecutive months, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[1] - Social financing scale increased by 28.575 trillion yuan in December 2024, up 9.249 trillion yuan year-on-year[2] - Total social financing stock reached 408.3 trillion yuan, with an 8% year-on-year growth rate[2] Credit and Financing - New credit in December 2024 was 840.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 268.5 billion yuan, but the decline narrowed compared to the previous month[3] - Government bond issuance surged to 1.7612 trillion yuan in December 2024, up 828.8 billion yuan year-on-year, driven by fiscal policy measures[3] - Corporate bond financing saw a year-on-year decrease of 258.8 billion yuan, but the overall financing scale improved compared to credit data[3] Monetary Indicators - M1 and M2 growth rates increased to -1.4% and 7.3% respectively in December 2024, with the M1-M2 spread narrowing to -8.7%[3] - Manufacturing medium and long-term loans grew by 11.9%, while loans to specialized and innovative SMEs increased by 13.0%[3] Policy and Market Outlook - Monetary policy is expected to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, with potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement reductions[3] - The central bank has emphasized the risks associated with government bond investments, signaling a cautious approach to market regulation[3]