Economic Overview - In 2024, China's GDP is expected to grow by 4.8% year-on-year, maintaining positive growth for nine consecutive quarters[2] - The manufacturing sector shows strong performance, with high-tech manufacturing investment growing by 9.3% year-on-year, contributing 68.1% to overall investment growth[5] - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 44.27 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to November 2024[4] Policy Measures - The government plans to implement more proactive fiscal policies and measures to boost domestic demand in 2025, with a GDP growth target of around 5%[8] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase to approximately 4% in 2025, translating to a deficit scale of about 5.4 trillion yuan[13] - Monetary policy is shifting to "moderately loose," with expectations of further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support economic growth[12] Investment and Consumption - Investment in infrastructure is expected to be supported by the issuance of special bonds, with the scale potentially increasing to 4.5 trillion yuan in 2025[13] - Consumer spending is anticipated to recover, driven by policies aimed at enhancing income levels and optimizing supply structures[10] - The real estate sector is projected to stabilize, with various policy adjustments aimed at supporting market recovery[11] Trade and External Factors - China's total goods trade is expected to grow by 4.9% year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2024, with a diverse range of trading partners[7] - The export of high-tech products is projected to increase by 8.4%, reflecting the ongoing transformation and upgrading of domestic industries[7] - Despite global economic uncertainties, China's economy is expected to maintain stability and sustainable growth in 2025, leveraging domestic market potential[14]
2025年我国宏观经济形势分析及展望：化压力为动力，创造更为光明的发展前景
Da Gong Guo Ji·2025-01-16 06:53