海外观察：2024年12月美国CPI：美国核心通胀放缓，减弱货币鹰派预期

Inflation Data and Trends - US CPI for December 2024 increased by 2.9% year-on-year, meeting expectations, and rose by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.3%[3] - Core CPI for December 2024 increased by 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.3%, and rose by 0.2% month-on-month, in line with expectations[3] - Energy prices surged by 2.6% month-on-month, contributing significantly to the CPI increase, driven by higher international crude oil prices[3] - Core goods prices weakened, with used car prices rising by 1.2% month-on-month, down from 2.0% in the previous month[3] Market Reactions and Expectations - Market expectations for the first Fed rate cut in 2025 have moved forward to May, with two rate cuts anticipated within the year[3] - Asset price movements post-CPI data: US stocks and gold rose, while US Treasury yields and the dollar index declined[3] Inflation Components and Trends - Food prices rose by 0.3% month-on-month, a slight decrease from the previous 0.4%[3] - Core services remained stable at 0.3% month-on-month, with housing costs also steady at 0.3%[3] - Transportation services saw a significant increase of 0.5% month-on-month, up from 0.0% in the previous month[3] Risks and Uncertainties - US inflation remains uncertain due to potential policy changes under Trump's administration, which could impact market trading logic between rate cuts and reflation[3] - Risks include potential tariffs on imported goods and geopolitical tensions, which could further influence inflation dynamics[3]