基础化工行业深度报告：烧碱：关注2025H1烧碱供需错配机会

Industry Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the basic chemical industry, specifically focusing on the caustic soda sector, with a particular emphasis on the supply-demand mismatch opportunity in H1 2025 [1] Core Views - The report predicts that both caustic soda and alumina capacities in China will grow in 2025, with new caustic soda capacities concentrated in H2 2025 and new alumina capacities concentrated in H1 2025, creating a supply-demand mismatch that could drive caustic soda prices upward in H1 2025 [4] - The report forecasts a caustic soda supply surplus of 1.21 million tons for the full year of 2025, but a supply gap of 260,000 tons in H1 2025 [4] Supply-Side Analysis - In 2024, China's caustic soda capacity reached 50.416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, with the majority of production concentrated in East China, North China, and Northwest China [4] - The market is highly fragmented, with only 5 companies having a capacity of over 1 million tons per year, and the CR5 (concentration ratio of the top 5 companies) is only 2.8% [4] - Due to policy constraints, the actual new caustic soda capacity in 2025 is expected to be 3.8 million tons, with actual new production of 3.1 million tons, mostly concentrated in H2 2025 [4] Demand-Side Analysis - In 2024, China's apparent consumption of caustic soda was 34.96 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, with alumina being the largest downstream application, accounting for 31% of demand [4] - The report estimates that China's alumina capacity will increase by over 10 million tons in 2025, driving an additional 1.24 million tons of caustic soda demand [4] - Overall, the report predicts an additional 1.59 million tons of caustic soda demand in 2025, with a significant demand pull expected in H1 2025 due to the concentrated alumina capacity additions during that period [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies with large caustic soda capacities, complete chlorine production facilities, and relatively low market capitalization per unit of caustic soda capacity are expected to benefit from the supply-demand mismatch [4] - Recommended companies include ST Zhongtai, Chlor-Alkali Chemical, Xinjiang Tianye, Beiyuan Group, Binzhou Chemical, Sanyou Chemical, Huasu Co, Tianyuan Co, and Zhenyang Development [4] Historical Price Trends - Over the past decade, caustic soda prices in China have experienced four upward cycles, driven by supply-side reforms, environmental policies, and demand from downstream industries such as alumina and papermaking [10][11][12] Future Outlook - The report highlights a potential supply-demand mismatch in H1 2025, with new alumina capacities concentrated in H1 2025 and new caustic soda capacities concentrated in H2 2025, which could drive caustic soda prices upward [13][18] Key Influencing Factors - Chlorine-alkali balance may constrain caustic soda supply, as the production of 1 ton of caustic soda generates 0.886 tons of chlorine gas, which must be consumed quickly due to its hazardous nature [37] - The capacity ceiling in the electrolytic aluminum industry, which consumes 94% of alumina, may limit the growth of caustic soda demand [40] - Light soda ash could potentially substitute caustic soda in certain applications, although this substitution is not expected to occur easily due to various cost and quality considerations [40][41]