汽车汽配行业更新报告：补贴政策延续将促进乘用车销量在2025年持续增长

Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook for the automotive market in 2025, with expected retail sales of passenger vehicles and new energy vehicles (NEVs) reaching 23.65 million and 13.10 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 3% and 20% [4]. Core Insights - The continuation of subsidy policies is expected to support sustained growth in passenger vehicle sales in 2025, with a focus on the demand for new energy vehicles [4]. - In December, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 2.635 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, while NEV retail sales grew by 40.8% [2]. - The penetration rate of NEVs reached 49.4% in December, with a projected annual penetration rate of 55% in 2025 [4]. Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicle Sales - In 2024, retail and wholesale sales of passenger vehicles are projected to be 22.96 million and 27.21 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 6.1% and 13.7% [2]. - December saw a retail sales increase of 12.0% month-on-month and 8.7% year-on-year, with wholesale sales up by 12.3% month-on-month [2]. New Energy Vehicle Sales - In 2024, NEV retail and wholesale sales are expected to reach 10.90 million and 12.16 million units, with year-on-year growth of 40.8% and 56.8% [2]. - The cumulative penetration rate for NEVs in 2024 is projected to be 47.5%, up from 34.6% in 2023 [6]. Battery Industry - The total installed capacity of power batteries in 2024 is expected to reach 548.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 41.5% [3]. - In December, the installed capacity of power batteries was 75.4 GWh, with a month-on-month growth of 57.3% [3]. Export Performance - In December, passenger vehicle exports reached 404,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, with total exports for the year at 4.791 million units, up 25.0% [2]. - NEV exports in December were 122,000 units, with a year-on-year growth of 24.3% for the entire year [2]. Policy Support - The subsidy policy for vehicle trade-ins will remain consistent with 2024, with total subsidy demand expected to exceed 200 billion yuan [4]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies in driving consumer demand and supporting the automotive market's growth trajectory [4].